SEANOHA – Business News: Resource- and Production-Oriented Industries

1. Agriculture and Food Processing

• Global – News 1
  Fertilizer prices surged dramatically in the six weeks since the Iran war began: urea prices jumped $230 per ton (+49%), anhydrous ammonia climbed $245 per ton (+32%), and DAP rose $130 per ton (+21%), according to StoneX data reported around April 10–13, 2026. The U.S. Department of Justice launched an investigation into whether fertilizer producers colluded to keep prices elevated, while U.S. Agriculture Secretary Rollins confirmed the government is working to ensure supply access for the 200,000+ farmers who have yet to secure fertilizer for the 2026 planting season.¹ (AgWeb)

• Global – News 2
  The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) urgently called on countries not to restrict fertilizer and energy exports, warning that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed approximately one-third of globally traded fertilizer — creating a direct threat to food security, particularly for import-dependent nations in Africa and South Asia.² (Bloomberg)

• Indonesia (Export & Investment Opportunity)
  The USDA's Indonesia Oilseeds and Products Annual, published April 15, 2026, forecasts that Indonesian palm oil production will rise 3% to 48 million metric tons in 2026/27, driven by maturing plantations and higher-yield varieties. Palm oil exports are forecast to reach 25 million tons (+4%), with strong demand from China, India, and Pakistan. Indonesia's biodiesel production capacity has already reached 22 billion liters — and the B50 blending mandate rollout is set for 2026.³ (Ofimagazine)

2. Mining and Raw Materials

• Global – News 1
  A Reuters column published April 19, 2026 confirmed that the Iran war's sulfurous fallout is now spreading to copper and nickel supply chains. China's planned sulfuric acid export ban from May 2026 is expected to remove 3 million tonnes from the global seaborne market — critically affecting Chile, Indonesia, and India. LME copper prices pushed back above $13,000 per ton for the first time in a month as a result.⁴ (MINING.COM)

• Global – News 2
  The International Nickel Study Group estimates the nickel market will swing to a 32,000-tonne deficit in 2026, reflecting Indonesia's production quotas and the ongoing fallout from the Middle East conflict. LME nickel prices surged to an 11-week high of $18,655 per ton as Indonesian HPAL producers began reducing run-rates due to sulfur supply constraints.⁵ (Seeking Alpha)

• Indonesia (Export & Investment Opportunity)
  Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer and a major copper importer of sulfur, is directly affected by the global sulfur squeeze: Macquarie estimates the rise in sulfur prices since the start of 2026 has added $4,000 per ton to Indonesian HPAL nickel production costs — lifting the cost curve to $14,500–$18,000 per ton. The supply tightness is simultaneously raising nickel export prices, creating a windfall opportunity for Indonesian nickel producers whose mines are unaffected by the sulfur shortage.⁶ (MINING.COM)

3. Natural Gas & LNG

• Global – News 1
  Oil prices surged back to $106 per barrel on April 24, 2026, as the IEA confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz closure has removed roughly 20% of global LNG supply. Asian LNG spot prices neared $21 per MMBtu — the highest since January 2023 — while the IEA warned that damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan facility will delay the anticipated LNG supply wave by at least two years.⁷ (Discovery Alert)

• Global – News 2
  The IEA's Q2 2026 Gas Market Report, published April 24, 2026, confirmed that the Middle East crisis has fundamentally altered the global natural gas outlook. Global LNG production fell 8% year-on-year in March, with a more pronounced decline in April. The combined effect of supply losses and infrastructure damage could result in a cumulative loss of around 120 billion cubic metres of LNG supply between 2026 and 2030.⁸ (IEA)

• Indonesia (Export & Investment Opportunity)
  INPEX and Pertamina expanded their strategic collaboration on April 1, 2026, extending a memorandum of understanding to advance the Abadi LNG project in the Masela Block — including coordination across the full LNG value chain. With global LNG supply tightening dramatically due to the Hormuz crisis, the $21 billion Abadi LNG project, targeting 9.5 million tons per year of output, is now even more strategically critical for Asian energy security.⁹ (Pipeline and Gas Journal)

4. Manufacturing and Industry

• Global – News 1
  The April 2026 Global PMI data — the first major dataset captured since the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure — reveals a global manufacturing sector under significant stress. Seven of 30 countries tracked reported outright manufacturing contraction. India cut manufacturing output by approximately 20% to ration energy, while Singapore and South Korea reported bunker fuel shortages creating operational constraints at major transshipment hubs.¹⁰ (Eawlogistics)

• Global – News 2
  China's planned sulfuric acid export ban from May 2026 is expected to disrupt manufacturing across multiple industries globally, as the acid is a critical input not only for copper and nickel production but for chemicals, fertilizers, and industrial processing. The ban will primarily affect manufacturers in Chile, Indonesia, and India — reshaping global industrial supply chains.¹¹ (MINING.COM)

• Indonesia (Export & Investment Opportunity)
  Indonesia's $38.4 billion trade and investment package with the United States — including the $4.89 billion semiconductor joint venture at Galang Island in Batam, signed in Washington in February 2026 — positions the country as a serious contender in advanced manufacturing. The initiative is projected to generate approximately 5,000 skilled jobs in the initial phase, with long-term investment potential of up to $26.7 billion, encompassing semiconductor fabrication, silicon wafer production, and advanced materials.¹² (Australian Institute of International Affairs)

5. Inventions, Small Businesses

• Global – News 1
  Bloomberg reported on April 13, 2026 that fertilizer prices are surging while the U.S. Department of Justice investigates potential collusion among fertilizer producers — as governments from the US to the EU seek to ensure that the crisis does not permanently disadvantage smaller farming operations and food-tech startups that lack the hedging capacity of large agribusinesses.¹³ (Bloomberg)

• Global – News 2
  Climate tech IPOs opened in the week of April 25, 2026: nuclear startup X-energy raised $1 billion in its IPO, jumping 25% on its first day. Geothermal startup Fervo filed for its own IPO the same week. Global climate tech VC reached $40.5 billion in 2025 — up 8% — signaling that innovation investors are refocusing on energy security solutions that address exactly the vulnerabilities exposed by the current Middle East crisis.¹⁴ (Trellis Group)

• Indonesia (Export & Investment Opportunity)
  The USDA's April 15, 2026 report also noted major opportunities for U.S. suppliers to support Indonesia's $101 billion food processing industry, which relies heavily on imported ingredients. The US holds an 11% market share in key products such as soybeans, wheat, and dairy products — positioning Indonesia's food processing sector as a prime destination for international food tech startups and small business suppliers.¹⁵ (Usda-indonesia)

References

¹ AgWeb / StoneX. (2026, April 13). Fertilizer Fight Heats Up As Prices Soar and Survey Points to Bigger Price Risks. https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/corn/fertilizer-fight-heats-prices-soar-and-survey-points-bigger-price-risks-2027

² Bloomberg / FAO. (2026, April 13). UN Warns Fertilizer, Energy Export Curbs Threaten Global Food Security. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-13/un-warns-of-food-risks-from-fertilizer-energy-trade-curbs

³ USDA / OFI Magazine. (2026, April 15). Indonesia Oilseeds and Products Annual — palm oil production forecast to rise 3% to 48M tonnes. https://www.ofimagazine.com/news/indonesian-2026-27-palm-oil-production-forecast-to-rise-3-to-48m-tonnes

⁴ MINING.COM / Reuters. (2026, April 19). Iran war's sulfurous fallout spreads to copper and nickel. https://www.mining.com/web/column-iran-wars-sulfurous-fallout-spreads-to-copper-and-nickel/

⁵ Seeking Alpha. (2026, April 30). Nickel Miners News For The Month Of April 2026. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4897171-nickel-miners-news-for-the-month-of-april-2026

⁶ MINING.COM / Reuters / Macquarie. (2026, April 19). Iran war's sulfurous fallout — Indonesian HPAL nickel production costs +$4,000/t. https://www.mining.com/web/column-iran-wars-sulfurous-fallout-spreads-to-copper-and-nickel/

⁷ Hey GoTrade / IEA. (2026, April 24). Middle East Crisis to Disrupt Global Oil and LNG Into 2027. https://www.heygotrade.com/en/news/middle-east-crisis-global-oil-lng-2027-iea/

⁸ IEA / CEE Energy News. (2026, April 24). IEA Gas Market Report, Q2-2026 — Middle East crisis disrupts global LNG markets. https://ceenergynews.com/oil-gas/iea-gas-report-q2-2026/

⁹ P&GJ / World Oil. (2026, April 1). INPEX, Pertamina Advance Indonesia's Abadi LNG Project. https://pgjonline.com/news/2026/april/inpex-pertamina-advance-indonesia-s-abadi-lng-project

¹⁰ Euro-American Worldwide Logistics. (2026). Global PMI Update: What April 2026 Manufacturing Data Tells Us About Global Supply Chain Risk. https://www.eawlogistics.com/global-pmi-update-what-april-2026-manufacturing-data-tells-us-about-global-supply-chain-risk/

¹¹ MINING.COM / Reuters. (2026, April 19). China sulfuric acid export ban spreads supply disruption to global manufacturing. https://www.mining.com/web/column-iran-wars-sulfurous-fallout-spreads-to-copper-and-nickel/

¹² Australian Institute of International Affairs. (2026, April 1). Indonesia's Strategic Semiconductor Architecture — $38.4B US deal, $4.89B Batam JV. https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/navigating-among-giants-indonesias-strategic-semiconductor-architecture-and-global-hedging-diplomacy/

¹³ Bloomberg. (2026, April 13). Fertilizer Prices Jump as USDA Asks Farmers to Aid Justice Department Inquiry. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-13/usda-wants-farmers-to-help-with-fertilizer-probe-as-prices-soar

¹⁴ TechCrunch / Trellis. (2026, April 25). The climate tech IPO window could finally be cracking open. https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/25/the-climate-tech-ipo-window-could-finally-be-cracking-open/

¹⁵ USDA Indonesia / USDA FAS. (2026, April 15). Indonesia's $101 billion food processing industry — opportunities for US suppliers. https://usda-indonesia.org/reports/

Interested in gaining deeper insights into Indonesia and Southeast Asia?

Book a free 15-minute introductory call with our team or explore our Research Hours and expert Consulting services.

We’ll help you uncover relevant developments, identify opportunities, and turn insights into actionable strategies tailored to your needs in the region.

Schedule your free 15-minute call or book your Research Hours today and take the next step.

Terms & Conditions

Returns & Refunds policy

PT. SEANOHA BUSINESS PARTNER

Registered in Indonesia

Tax ID (NPWP): 1000-0000-0968-5743